Speaker
Descrizione
Earth-system tipping points have become an important lens to understand abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible changes in the Earth system. The concept of tipping brings together evidence and perspectives from across multiple disciplines, while also raising important challenges for scientific assessment.
This contribution introduces the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) Working Group I Chapter 8, dedicated to assessing “Abrupt changes, low-likelihood high-impact events and critical thresholds, including tipping points, in the Earth system.”
The contribution will discuss how this assessment is constructed within the IPCC process: how the scope of the chapter is defined, how diverse and interdisciplinary evidence is assessed, how scientific uncertainty and confidence are evaluated, and how different perspectives and fields of expertise are brought together in the development of an authoritative assessment.
The experience of developing Chapter 8 provides a practical example of the challenges involved in assessing complex Earth-system phenomena that span disciplinary boundaries, including how evidence for thresholds, abrupt changes, low-likelihood high-impact events and tipping points can be evaluated and synthesised within an international scientific assessment.
